Waiting for good weather

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  • #7593
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

     

    UK Secretary of State for the Environment reveals his depth of knowledge of climate change (not!)

     

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/paterson-on-climate.html

    #7618
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    #7633
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    #7634
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    A brutal and potentially historic heat wave is in store for the West as parts of Nevada, Arizona and California may get dangerously hot temperatures this weekend and into next week. In fact, by the end of the heat wave, we may see a record tied or broken for the hottest temperature ever recorded on Earth.

    The furnace-like heat is coming courtesy of a “stuck” weather pattern that is setting up across the U.S. and Canada. By early next week, the jet stream  a fast-moving river of air at airliner altitudes that is responsible for steering weather systems — will form the shape of a massive, slithering snake with what meteorologists refer to as a deep “ridge” across the Western states, and an equally deep trough seting up across the Central and Eastern states.

    http://www.climatecentral.org/news/heat-wave-to-threaten-worlds-hottest-temperature-record-16161

    #7666
    Mari
    Participant

    El Nino unusually active in the late 20th century, study finds

    http://phys.org/news/2013-06-el-nino-unusually-late-20th.html

    #7680
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

     

    Kevin Anderson :

    To sum up: those commissioned to produce these scenarios are essentially obliged to use a reduction rate in emissions (from the emissions peak) that is dictated by what economists assert is viable with economic growth. Consequently, scientists are being cajoled into developing increasingly bizarre sets of scenarios … that are able to deliver politically palatable messages. Such scenarios underplay the current emissions growth rate, assume ludicrously early peaks in emissions and translate commitments “to stay below 2°C” into a 60 to 70% chance of exceeding 2°C.

    Moreover, when even these scenarios fail to deliver, Dr Strangelove – in the guise of geo-engineering – is called upon. Such technologies may be found to work, perhaps even at reasonable scale. So they may one day be used. But, given the levels of uncertainty, their ubiquitous presence in 2°C scenarios only adds to my concern that orthodox economics and political cowardice are unduly influencing science.

    To some extent, the cat has been let out of the bag. Increasingly, established organisations are joining the voices of those previously dismissed as alarmists and noting how the optimistic ramblings of many analysts look increasingly ridiculous. The International Energy Agency (IEA), Price Waterhouse Coopers, and a range of others are saying explicitly that emission trends are heading in completely the wrong direction, and that we need something much more radical to avoid 2°C.

    However, while the scale of the problem is being grudgingly acknowledged, few are yet prepared to challenge the dominance of financial instruments and the wholly inadequate suite of mitigation proposals – let alone the more thorny issues of economic growth, equity and absolute versus relative emission reductions.

    So in 2013 we are left with an increasing recognition of the radical nature of the problem – but a willingness only to consider piecemeal incrementalism as the solution. Anyone daring to highlight the disjuncture continues to be marginalised. 

     

    http://www.climatecodered.org/2013/07/stop-tailoring-global-warming-scenarios.html

    #7690
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    NARRATION
    To find out if a warmer climate is cranking up the water cycle, scientists have been searching for clues in the restless, churning oceans.

    Dr Susan Wijffels
    Most of the evaporation and most of the rainfall in the world actually cycles through the ocean surface, not through the land. Because it covers 75 percent of the Earth, most of the action’s actually happening over the ocean.

    NARRATION
    Every time rain falls or water evaporates from the sea, surface salinity changes.

    Dr Susan Wijffels
    When we look at the ocean salinity field right now, we see this beautiful reflection of what happens in the atmosphere. So the places that are very rainy – say, the Tropics, where there’s a large amount of rainfall all the time – the surface salinity field is very fresh. When we go to the parts of the atmosphere where we find deserts on land, there are desert equivalents over the ocean, where evaporation dominates, and that’s where we find the surface of the ocean is very, very salty.

    NARRATION
    Keeping track of how salty seas change, more than 3,000 ocean robots called ‘Argo floats’ have been bobbing about on the global currents, beaming back data over time. The oceans are always mixing, so results are smoothed out instead of patchy like land records. Argo data and long-term records from research vessels reveal an unmistakable trend.

    Dr Susan Wijffels
    Over the last 50 years, that contrast has gone up quite markedly. So, for instance, the Atlantic Ocean is becoming saltier and saltier and saltier. And the Pacific is becoming fresher and fresher. Essentially translates to the fact that the wet areas have become wetter and the dry areas have become drier.

    NARRATION
    The big surprise is how fast the change is occurring. For every degree rise in air temperature, the water cycle is intensifying by percent. That’s double the climate-model predictions.

    Dr Susan Wijffels
    The intensity of the storms are likely to go up, because the moisture in the atmosphere is actually the feeder energy stop that drives storms. And we expect droughts and floods to amplify as well.

     

     

    http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/3796205.htm

    #7722
    Mari
    Participant

    Study shows how early Earth kept warm enough to support life

    The simplest solution to the faint sun paradox, which duplicates Earth’s present climate, involves maintaining roughly 20,000 parts per million of the greenhouse gas CO2 and 1,000 ppm of methane in the ancient atmosphere some 2.8 billion years ago, said Wolf. While that may seem like a lot compared to today’s 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, geological studies of ancient soil samples support the idea that CO2 likely could have been that high during that time period. Methane is considered to be at least 20 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than CO2 and could have played a significant role in warming the early Earth as well, said the CU researchers.

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-07-early-earth-life.html#jCp

    #7725
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    Wildfires may contribute more to global warming than previously thought

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/07/130709124153.htm

    #7729
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster
    #7741
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster
    #7745
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    #7794
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    Offshore permafrost decay and massive seabed methane escape in water depths >20 m at the South Kara Sea shelf

     

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50735/abstract

    #7802
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    #7846
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster
    #7847
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    “The last below-average June temperature was June 1976 and the last below-average temperature for any month was February 1985,” NOAA said in a release.

     

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=more-heat-drought-and-floods-in-2013

    #7886
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    PEAK OIL

    But my bet is that U.S. and European consumers can’t tolerate significantly higher prices. Price tolerance is something that Cornucopians never talk about, so you won’t hear that argument from them. If I am correct on that point, then production will have to decline as prices become intolerable. By virtue of its upward pressure on price, unconventional oil production contributes to, not cures, peak oil.

    I expect world oil production to rise, weakly, for another two years or so, as America falls into a deeper slumber believing that fracking has cured everything. The media will reinforce that belief. And when it comes, the wake-up call is going to be harsh. In the meantime we’re just going to bewaiting for the punchline.

    So to those who can grasp the data, here’s my final thought: How will you prepare yourself for The Great Contraction? You’ve got perhaps two good years left of business as usual, and maybe another three or four after that before things really get difficult. I encourage you to use them well, and do what you can to make yourself resilient and self-sufficient. What will you do 10 years from now if the price of gasoline is $10 a gallon?

    Yes, we do need to have a serious talk about our values, hopes, beliefs, mythologies, and ambitions; about the embedded growth paradigm, the debt overhang, and economic theory in an age of diminishing marginal returns. Those are all important discussions. But let’s have them after we understand the facts about energy. Not before.

     

    Whatever you do, don’t think that peak oil is dead just because some guy who doesn’t know what he’s talking about said so in a fact-free blog post. It’s coming. Later than some thought, but sooner than you think.

     

    http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/take/peak-oil-isnt-dead-it-just-smells-that-way/963?tag=nl.e660&s_cid=e660&ttag=e660&ftag=TRE4eb29b5

    #7887
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

     

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jul/24/arctic-thawing-permafrost-climate-change

     

    All about the money. No mention of the possible potential methane spike that gives us a 10 deg C temp rise over ten years…

    #7888
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

     

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insight/2013/jul/24/arctic-ice-free-methane-economy-catastrophe?INTCMP=SRCH

     

    But this one does, in a rather oblique way, using very careful and diplomatic language, from Dr Wadhams.

    #7915
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    Unlike in other parts of the word, tropical ecosystems are capable of generating significant carbon dioxide when temperatures rise, an international team of researchers has found.

    Specifically, the scientists discovered that a temperature increase of just 1 degree Celsius in near-surface air temperatures in the tropics results in an average annual growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is equivalent to one-third of the annual global emissions caused by the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation combined.

    http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/3164/20130725/tropical-ecosystems-boost-carbon-dioxide-temperatures-increase-study.htm

    #7927
    Mari
    Participant

    http://judithcurry.com/2013/07/13/unforced-variability-and-the-global-warming-slow-down/#more-12189

    Patrick Brown: Unforced variability and the global warming slow down

    One analogy that could be used to describe the interplay between externally forcedvariability (like increasing greenhouse gasses) and internally generated unforcedvariability (like El-Niño/La-Niña) is that of a man walking a dog (Fig. 2). In this analogy the movement of the man represents the externally forced variability and the movement of the dog, relative to the man, represents unforced variability. The man moves in a rather determinist, predictable path while the dog moves in a more random unpredictable path. Many with engineering backgrounds will recognize this as a signal-to-noise issue. Notice that the dog can only wander a certain distance away from the man before the leash pulls it back toward the general direction of the man. Because of this, the path of the dog ends up being the sum of the path of the man plus the movement of the dog. Analogously, the temperature progression that we can observe is the externally forced component of temperature change plus the internal unforced component of temperature change.

    #7953
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    Arctic time bombs

    TreesWhile keeping an eye on day-to-day data and speculating about whether 2013 is going to overcome the odds and break last year’s records, one tends to forget about the wider implications and what this actually is all about. A tree is incredibly interesting, but in the end it’s all about the forest.

    It’s important to remember that the situation isn’t looking good in the Arctic. Not good at all. We’re witnessing things that were supposed to happen decades from now. Instead we’re looking at a change that is hard to fathom, but takes place during our lifetimes, not on a geological timescale.

    http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/07/arctic-time-bombs.html

    #7966
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/the-great-arctic-flush.html

     

    http://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2013/07/26/reality-can-be-far-worse-than-whats-predicted/comment-page-1/#comment-8244

     

    The trouble with these smart people, particularly the scientific ones with PhDs, they all look through the wrong end of the telescope, and forget that there is a lot more going on outside that narrow little slot….

    The East Siberian Arctic Sea continental shelf is vast, possible the biggest on the planet….

    The idiot mainstream scientists told us that the clathrates are all in very deep water where it is very cold and the pressure is very high so that we will not have to worry because they won’t warm for thousands of years…

    Except that the ESAS is SHALLOW and the water can warm up very fast because the ice cover has gone, and the rivers, I think, the Lena and Ob ? one of the largest estuaries on the planet, which used to be very cold, is now coming off a newly WARM land surface where it is now so hot the people are sun bathing, so the warm fresh water flows into the shallow 50 metre deep sea over the 50 metre thick silt that has been sealing the methane clathrates….

    There is the possibility, THE POSSIBILITY, not certainty, but think about it, because there’s no way to stop it, – that we get 50 gigatonnes of methane coming out, which doubles the heating from carbon in the atmosphere over a very few years… and that’s the end of us…

    What’s to stop it from happening ? I do not know. I cannot see anything that stops it happening.

    All I see is supposedly smart people on blogs talking mostly rather poorly informed nonsense.

     

    For one thing, connect what happens at ESAS to Qinghai Tibet Plateau and to the Antarctic, because if the ESAS methane triggers so will those other two… and as soon as the ESAS methane triggers, and the heating spike starts going skywards, so does all of the N. Hemisphere permafrost methane and Co2, and all the other feedbacks that Guy McPherson lists and nobody else ever talks about…

    http://guymcpherson.com/2013/01/climate-change-summary-and-update/

    It has happened before. Methane and temperature went up 10 or 12 deg C in perfect synchronisation, over about a decade. That will wipe us and most else off this planet.

     

     

    #7968
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    Although the mainstream clueless orthodox establishment will not agree, they’ll brand him as an extremist, I see Wadhams as a conservative, an optimist, I mean, he’s a Cambridge University Professor, he’s not exactly a revolutionary intent on upsetting the social order…

    He said :

    … we calculated its effect [ the methane ] on increasing overall global warming, obtaining a 0.6C figure by 2040. We rightly consider these to be substantial figures which deserve wide circulation among climate scientists, and Nature and its referees agreed with us….

    #7969
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    Watch at 4:50

     

    #7970
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    #7971
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster
    #7972
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    The equivalent heating of methane is about 105 times that of  CO2 , NOT 20 times which everyone keeps saying.

    The 20 x is calculated over a 100 years. Nobody cares what happens to methane over a 100 years, because that doesn’t matter to anybody. What MATTERS is what happens over the 12 years that methane lasts in the atmosphere before it degrades into CO2, and over that 12 years it’s heating effect is around 105 times that of CO2.

     

    Also in this video, the microbes that break down the peat produce heat as they do so, much like the fermentation in a cow’s stomach or similar processes, so that helps to melt the permafrost, yet another irreversible feedback.

     

    #7976
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

     

    On July 25 the journal Nature published an article about the “Economic time bomb” that is slowly being detonated by Arctic warming. Gail Whiteman of Erasmus University in the Netherlands, and Chris Hope and Peter Wadhams of the University of Cambridge suggest — based on economic modeling that the “release of methane from thawing permafrost beneath the East Siberian Sea” would come with an “average global price tag of $60 trillion.” The news should have sent a shock wave through the media. But instead, predictably, the public were encouraged to celebrate — again and again, and again — the birth of the royal son.

    My first encounter with methane release in the Arctic was in early August 2006. It was a grey, cold day along the Beaufort Sea coast in Alaska. Iñupiaq conservationist Robert Thompson and I were walking along the northwest corner of Barter Island when we came across a rather ghastly scene: an exposed coffin with human bones scattered around it. The permafrost (frozen soil) had melted away and exposed the coffin. Robert speculated that a grizzly bear broke open the coffin and scattered the human remains. What we didn’t see, however, is the methane that was released from thawing of the permafrost.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/subhankar-banerjee/let-us-now-sing-about-the_b_3667581.html

    #7977
    ulvfugl
    Keymaster

    Good lecture, especially re permafrost, etc from 30:00

    http://live.unimelb.edu.au/episode/climate-change-critical-decade

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